Skin in the Game
Polls ask people what they hope will happen. Prediction markets ask people what they think will happen and backs it up with money.- Honesty: Money incentivizes participants to tell the truth about their expectations, rather than signaling virtue.
- Speed: Markets react instantly to breaking news, whereas polls take days to conduct and publish.
- Accuracy: Historically, prediction markets have outperformed polls in predicting election outcomes and economic events.